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Competing With Lottery Winners

 
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jabailo



Joined: 20 Mar 2006
Posts: 1273
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA

PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2011 8:01 pm    Post subject: Competing With Lottery Winners Reply with quote

I finally realized my mistake.

I have been trying to compete with lottery winners.

You can't beat a lottery winner with:

Modeling. You cannot model yourself after a lottery winner and expect to become as wealthy.

Books. You cannot read a book called the Top Ten Rules of Lottery Winners written by a lottery winner or his apologists, and become as wealthy.

Justifying. You cannot argue with a lottery, by saying you're better, smarter, more qualified or cuter than the lottery winner. It doesn't work with a lottery...it will not make you money. And the lottery winner can ignore you.

The only way to compete with a lottery winner...is to win a bigger jackpot...


Last edited by jabailo on Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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brian-hansen
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 26, 2011 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In other words, in the arena you are thinking of, the results are based purely on luck.
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jabailo



Joined: 20 Mar 2006
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Location: Kent (East Hill), WA

PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, not exactly.

Because even a lottery winner has to make an effort (As Woody Allen said, 98 percent of success is showing up on time) ...buying a ticket, maybe pooling with his work friends, perhaps even studying the odds to find the "best" lottery.

I guess I am more talking about the uniqueness of each person's life path. And the step function nature some paths where simple tweaks to inputs can result in big gains...or losses...tweaks which are not always available, appropriate or even desirable to others.
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jabailo



Joined: 20 Mar 2006
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Location: Kent (East Hill), WA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Poll: 42 Percent of American Millionaires Don't Feel Rich

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2011/03/14/poll-42-percent-of-american-millionaires-dont-feel-rich


My comment to NYT and SLOG:

Quote:
I've expressed this as living in a society of lottery winners. Clearly, many of us work hard, produce quality work, do innovative things, use opportunities. And yet, just by being a day late or a dollar short we can fail to get that ultimate prize. Imagine a 5 number lotto winner enviously eying a 6 number lotto winner. The 5 number winner thinks "oh, he just guessed that last one" and blogs it on social media using the new $3000 pad he just bought with his winnings. The 6 figure lotto winner is writing a book called The Secrets of 6 Number Winning and being interviewed on television....from his home on Maui.


So my thought here and expressed elsewhere has been that The Middle Class is really an artificial construct. The so-called Meritocracy with its system of SAT tests and Ivy League degrees and professional certifications is a total fiction. Its a way of producing order out of chaos. It gives the impression that the best idea wins, or someone who studies geography really hard will become the wealthiest guy on the planet.

The thing is, nature doesn't have a Middle Class. The top male gets 99 percent of the females and most of the food and territory. The "hierarchy" is merely a waiting line for the betas that hope to have a shot at the only game in town...Top Dog.
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brian-hansen
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It seems to me you derive the wrong lesson from "nature" as you call it.

There are areas of life that behave that way, to some extent.
The classic case is the sea lion, with "harems", palace intrigues,
and short, brutish reigns.

We share sexual dimorphism with sea lions, and, by best available
theory, a history of a tournament-style, harem, winner-take-all
reproductive pattern. The dimorphism on the hominid line varies
widely, though the overall strain appears to be toward less dimorphism
as you approach more closely homo sapiens.

It seems difficult to draw conclusions about human nature from
the evolutionary record, as "we" have gone through a wide variety
of sexual strategies and social structures as we have progressed
through our various evolutionary incarnations.
Freud put the overthrow of the tournament back in prehistory in
his "Totem and Taboo". Meanwhile, we've entered the cultural
and the "meme" ages, whereby age-old verities about what constituted
fitness have been rendered determinedly secondary.

I think you'd have had a better argument that there is no middle
class in male sea lions. Nature doesn't speak so clearly about
homo sapiens overall. I think you could find equally plausible
reasoning that allows for the "middle class" in nature.
And, of course, there is a telling sexist tinge to your post:
There is no middle class, you think, because there is no middle
class for males.

Meanwhile, I find your whole line of reasoning a bit distasteful.
You've already won the evolution-game, having a child survive
to adulthood. You seem resentful about having been good but
not lucky, when it's clear that one needs both to have continued
success.

From the tone of your post, I take it that you find that merit is
undervalued. If you were somehow able to try things over
without the benefit of the merit you find so unvalued, you might
learn to recognize it's value more clearly.

We just don't seem to live in the world you describe. The sunrise
isn't beautiful only to the fellow that lives in the penthouse.
As Dylan said, "I know where", meaning, pretty much, anywhere.

Merit makes a difference, as it always has. It just doesn't make
all the difference. If you weren't skiing in the Swiss Alps before
you got an Ivy League education, chances are you won't be doing
so afterwards either.


Last edited by brian-hansen on Fri Apr 01, 2011 5:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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jabailo



Joined: 20 Mar 2006
Posts: 1273
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA

PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's something about Warren Buffet that might explain it. (Using your evolutionary argument, I might be arguing that "group selection" is overriding "individual" selection in the business world these days).

Quote:

“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power,” Buffett told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in an interview released by the panel last week. “If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”

[...]

"The extraordinary business does not require good management,” Buffett said in the interview, which was conducted on May 26 in Omaha, Nebraska.

[...]

“I knew nothing about the management of Moody’s,” said Buffett. “If you own the only newspaper in town, up until the last five years or so, you had pricing power and you didn’t have to go to the office.”

A dominant position can’t prevent a bad manager from destroying a company over time, said Benjamin E. Hermalin, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business.

“If you have a really dominant position you can survive for quite a long time with bad management but eventually it will catch up to you,” said Hermalin. “In the short run I would agree with Buffett but in the longer-run perspective there is something to be said for having a good manager.”


I threw in the last quote for balance, but remember that's not Buffet talking. Buffet in fact seems to be saying, it doesn't matter, no how, no way.


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-18/buffett-says-pricing-power-more-important-than-good-management.html


Last edited by jabailo on Tue Dec 13, 2011 12:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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brian-hansen
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Joined: 17 Mar 2006
Posts: 712
Location: Oregon

PostPosted: Fri Apr 22, 2011 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you want me to understand your point,
you're going to have to be clearer.

You want the foolproof niche,
but you are resentful of those who have it.
Meanwhile, the example of that niche you give is a terrible one,
an example that shows that these niches disappear.
So far as I can tell, you are all over the map.

Meanwhile, bringing in what appears to be the falsehood
that nature has no middle class, is, to me, almost a criminal act,
elevating your resentful bias and misreading of science into a
justification for anyone's inhumanity.

If you saw yourself as competing with lottery players,
you might realize that the best way to compete is to not play
that game. The "winners" you cite are obviously deluding
themselves. Would you want that for yourself?

I pray that you will correct what I hope is my misunderstanding
of your position.
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jabailo



Joined: 20 Mar 2006
Posts: 1273
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA

PostPosted: Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


Greenwich Wealth Managers Collect $254 Million Record Lottery


Quote:

Three money managers in one of the country’s richest towns collected the biggest jackpot in the history of the Connecticut lottery after investing $1 dollar in a Powerball ticket.

Brandon E. Lacoff, co-founder of Belpointe LLC, an $82 million wealth manager in Greenwich, Connecticut, and his colleagues Gregory Skidmore and Tim Davidson rode a black limousine into the lottery headquarters in Rocky Hill yesterday to claim a $254 million Powerball prize, according to Anne Noble, president of the lottery.


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-29/greenwich-wealth-managers-collect-254-million-record-lottery.html
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jabailo



Joined: 20 Mar 2006
Posts: 1273
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA

PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

81-year-old R.I. woman wins $336.4M Powerball

Quote:
An 81-year-old Newport, R.I., woman kept her lottery ticket in her Bible after realizing she had won last month's $336.4 million Powerball, The Newport Daily News reports.

[..]

The newspaper says White lives with her son, LeRoy White, a local musician, and his wife, Deborah, a surgical nurse at Newport Hospital, on the seaside city's south side. LeRoy White is listed as a member of the Rhode Island State Council on the Arts.



http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/03/81-year-old-woman-wins-3364m-powerball/1#.T1aeDHnlVmw

Success modellers, add this to your criteria. Become a Surgical Nurse with an adult child living in the nest. Get those books to market!!
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jabailo



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Posts: 1273
Location: Kent (East Hill), WA

PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lottery billionaires...are they creating a new power structure?

When I look at the press surrounding the culture of tech billionaires, what I wonder is -- is it all really just a system of control? Putting billionaires "in place" is sort of like putting a junta in power. You create a situation or aura around the personalities, and this gives justification not only to the person, but to the entire system. If you are to have this power, you must get this billion dollars. Then what you say, is Gospel.

Now, the Wal*Mart shoppers want to play the game. These Sneetches are printing their own gold stars...with lotteries!

Mega Millions jackpot keeps soaring in ticket-buying frenzy

Quote:
New York’s Mega Millions hopefuls are snapping up lottery tickets at breakneck speed ahead of Friday night’s drawing for the record-breaking prize.

Between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m., Mega Millions vendors across the city sold a massive $1.6 million worth of tickets to people hoping to claim the life-changing $540 million jackpot.


http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/mega-millions-jackpot-soaring-ticket-buying-frenzy-article-1.1053422#ixzz1qcQa6tHW

How will success modellers handle it as Think and Grow Rich is replaced with Scratch and Grow Rich? Will the color of your parachute to be Lotto Yellow, and will you be told to Do What You Love, but participate in a Mega Millions Pool at work...just to be sure?

What does it say for college degrees, IPOs, patents, professional certificates if the 12-8 shift at the fulfillment warehouse ends up with all the marbles.

It's frightening for those deeply tied to the current system, and exhilarating for those who never had a chance in that same game. For those of us who it never helped or hurt too much one way or the other, we'll probably do what we do best. Figuring out how we can serve the new junta as we did the old...the Lottery Junta.
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